Friday, June 6, 2008

Sad for Hillary and Sidney

Wondering about how Hillary Clinton and the Pittsburgh Penguins are feeling now... I suspect (sarcastically) that Hillary may be a bit of an overachiever. Sorry, but too much is beyond the reach of even the greatest talent and promethean effort; too many contests come down to random bounces. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, one of the world's liveliest thinkers: "Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker [Prize], a Nobel or a private jet." On the other hand, to quote a phrase credited to Arnold Palmer (in this piece on John McCain), "It's a funny thing, the more I practice, the luckier I get." So while we've got to accept randomness and bad luck, we can't let that prevent us from being careful and committed about our work and the world in general. This is what science is supposed to be all about -- it's how science can have a deeper cultural influence -- at least in theory. The "victorious" moments in science aren't about awards; they are discoveries that were prepared for and vaguely desired, yet quite unexpected. The best we can hope for in most arenas is to be favoured by chance, which is hard work.

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